Introduction

Value betting means backing a horse when the odds are bigger than its true chance. It is the only reliable route to long-term profit. This guide shows how to estimate chance, compare to price, and act with discipline.

Implied probability and tissue prices

Convert odds into implied probability and create your own tissue (fair odds). If your fair price is 3.00 and the market offers 4.00, you have value. Repeatability matters more than any one result.

Signals that create value

Market overreacting to a last-time-out flop with excuses, a course specialist underestimated at a quirky track, trainer purple patches, and hidden positives on replays.

Pace and setup

Favourable setups such as a lone leader or an expected collapse can produce mispriced runners. Use pace maps to identify these edges.

Price sensitivity and staking

Insist on minimum prices. If the edge disappears, pass the race. Use level stakes or percentage staking to protect bankroll.

Using Racing Buddy for value

Racing Buddy compares model probabilities to live odds and flags overlays. It also highlights outsiders and supports each way.

Conclusion

Value is a process. Keep records, accept variance, and let edges compound over time.